1 Analyse af geografiske valgresultater Søren Risbjerg Thomsen Institut for Statskundskab Aarhus Universitet
2 Etablering af politisk-økologisk database Data på ca afstemningssteder Samtlige typer valg siden Valgdeltagelse, partiernes stemmer, social statistik ca. hvert femte år Siden 2001 –Opstillede kandidater, personlige stemmer Aktuelt: Udvikler software til opgørelse af data på konstante områder over tid (ved hjælp af vej-database)
3 Afstemningsteder i Danmark
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5 Økologisk Inferens
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8 Konstruktion af homogene politiske regioner
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14 Political regions in Denmark Based on Cluster analysis of logit change between consecutive elections for The Danish Parliament The European Parliament EU referendums
15 How would you divide Denmark in only two homogeneous politcal regions?
16 Two clusters
17 In three?
18 Central Copenhagen emerge
19 Jutland emerge
20 Bornholm emerge
21 North Jutland emerge
22 Rich part of Copenhagen emerge
23 South Jutland emerge
24 Århus emerge
25 West Jutland emerge
26 Ribe County emerge
27 Funen emerge
28 End of clusters You can do better when you have GIS: Master thesis by Kristian Elgaard Pedersen
29 Example: MA Western Copenhagen Constituency
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31 Local Strength H = (D a – D e ) – (C a - C e ) D a : Candidate’s actual share of district votes (average share of preferential votes + matching share of list votes) D e : Candidate’s expected share of district votes (average share of party’s votes in the district over the past five elections per nominated party candidate) C a : Party’s actual share of constituency votes per nominated candidate C e : Party’s expected share of constituency votes per nominated candidate (average share of party’s votes in the constituency over the last five elections per nominated candidate in the constituency
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33 Constituency of Ringkjøbing
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35 Nomination and Residential Effects in Rural and Urban Areas
36 Influence of Local Political Experience on Nomination and Residential Effects
37 Influence of National Political Experience on Nomination and Residential Effects
38 THE END Looking forward to more exciting GIS applications