Fremtiden som inspiration til innovation Anne Skare Nielsen Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning 2. maj 2002

”The Entrepreneurial Society” Indre Mening Ydre Normal Ligevægtig Kontinuerlig Formål Retning Kontrol Vækst og velfærd < Omstillingsparathed >

S-kurven: Produktlivscyklus Omsætning Inventiv Turbulent Sen Moden Tilbagegangs fase innovativ fase innovativ fase fase fase

Tilpasning eller parathed? ”Many previously succesful companies end up failing because they are so well adapted to their past that they fail to see their future” John Henry Klippinger III - The Biology of Business

The Social Learning Cycle Diffusion Codified Problem solving Absorption Uncodified Scanning Undiffused Diffused Kilde: Max Boisot (1992): “Is Your Firm a Creative Destroyer?”

The Social Learning Cycle Bureau-krati Marked Codified ”Innoveilance” Personlige relationer Netværk Uncodified Undiffused Diffused Kilde: Max Boisot (1992): “Is Your Firm a Creative Destroyer?”

Markeds- og omgivelsesfaktorer Lave entreprenelle krav Simpel Omgivelse A Omgivelse B Sikkert Usikkert Omgivelse C Omgivelse D Høje entreprenelle krav Kompleks Kilde: Gibb: Entrepeneurship, enterprise and small business, 1986

Beyond ”customer led” De uopdyrkede muligheder Unexploited oppertunities Unarticulated Needs Articulated Served Unserved Customer Types Gary Hamal, C.K Prahalad: Competing for the future

Inspirations-klippen Èn idé pr. person

Lone Inventors Lag Behind MIT: Technology Review, May 2002

It does not get any better when technology it self false short It does not get any better when technology it self false short. Titanic was a typical modern project - the ship that couldn’t sink. Not even God could sink this ship - man believed that he could defeat nature. And he lost. World war one, the atomic bomb, tjenobyl are other examples of this logic. And the result is that it is easy for people to believe the worst thing about new technologies and question experts promises in how good their new products are. Today this feature of modernity is called the Risk Society.

Fortidens fremtidsforudsigelser “In the future computers will weigh as little as 1,5 tons” Popular Mechanics, 1949 “There is a global market for app. five computers” Thomas Watson, IBM, 1943 “There is no reason why anybody should have a computer in their home” Ken Olsen, Digital Equipment, 1977 “640 k should be sufficient for everybody” Bill Gates, 1981 “But - what is it going to be used for ?” Commentary to the microchip by engineer, IBM 1968

This is your Future, 1950 3D Colour TV Slide back Roof Personal Helicopter Moving Stairway Glass Walls - Dust free floors - Menu selector - Giant size fruit – Ultrasonic Laundry

This is your Future, 2050

At tænke tid Fortid Nutid Fremtid

Fremtiden determinerer Fortid Nutid Fremtid

Fremtidens mulighedsrum Det mulige Det sandsynlige At forklare og specificere/systematisere At beslutte og operationalisere Det ønskelige At undre sig og definere Det sandsynlige Det mulige

At finde muligheden for at innovere…

En invitation til innovation Det uventede: den uventede succes den uventede fiasko den uventede ydre hændelse Inkongruens (en underliggende fejl) Nødvendig proces Industri- og markedsstruktur Demografi Ændringer i percpetion Ny viden Det uventede: den uventede succes den uventede fiasko den uventede ydre hændelse Inkongruens (en underliggende fejl) Nødvendig proces Industri- og markedsstruktur Demografi Ændringer i percpetion Ny viden Peter Drucker, Management Guru & “the worlds leading thinker”

Inkongruens og innovation “Whenever the people of an industry or a service misconceive reality, whenever they therefore make erroneous assumptions about it, their efforts will be misdirected. They will concentrate on the area where results do not exist. Then there is an incongruity between reality and behaviour, an incongruity that once again offers opportunity for successful innovation to whoever can perceive and exploit it”. Peter Drucker, 1986

An invitation to innovate Incongruities: (a dissonance between what ‘is’ and what ‘ought’ to be) - An incongruity between the efforts of an industry and the values and expectations of its customers Utility  Pricing  adaptation to the customers social and economic reality or by delivering what represents true value to the customer

”Jeg går aldrig tilbage til det firma! Hvad skal der stå? ”Jeg går aldrig tilbage til det firma! Det er simpelthen ikke _________ værd.” Tiden, besværet, bøvlet, indsatsen …. pengene?

“The Dream Society” Æstetik! FUNKTION? EFFEKTIVITET? Fascination! 1. Eks.: Inkongruitet “The Dream Society” Æstetik! FUNKTION? EFFEKTIVITET? Fascination!

Tryghed – Mening - Historie

Livsstil – Fordybelse - Autencitet

Privatforbruget 1844-1995 i Europa Amount index Source: Danish Statistics

Arbejdsstyrken 1901-2021 Sources: H.C.Johansen(1985), Dansk historisk statistik 1814 - 1980, Statistisk Tiårsoversigt 1984 og 1992

TO BELIEVE & TO BELONG Knappe Ressourcer ER IKKE: ER : Information Produkter Kanaler Muligheder Tilfredsstillelse Gode historier ER : Opmærksomhed Omsorg Ægte interesse Tid Tillid Mening TO BELIEVE & TO BELONG

Vækst i de følelsesmæssige sygdomme Angst og stress Depression Misbrug (stimuli, mad, spil, arbejde, Internet, medicin …..) Anorexi Hypochondri, orthorexi *) Kronisk træthedssyndrom Whiplash, fibromyalgi, etc. “Modediagnoser” *) Man kan også blive syg af jagten på det sunde liv

Behandling  Forebyggelse Today for every dollar we spend on medicines... we also spend nine on treatments and interventions. very soon we will spend at least an equal amount on prevention. Bill Haseltine, CEO of Human Genome Sciences

Alternativ behandling 2 ud af tre 3 danske borgere mellem 40 og 60 anvender alternative medikamenter ... Markedet for disse præparater et estimeret til 1 mia. danske kroner. Og vækstraten er 15-20 pct. om året – ligesom i resten af Europa. Kravet om bedre livskvalitet og ændringer i demografien er de væsentligste drivkræfter.

2. Eks.: Demografi

Behovet for kommunikation 3. Eks.: Inkongruitet Behovet for kommunikation

Communication+

Behovet for privatliv

True Value Creation “What does the customer really buy? - the one who asks this will win the race. Anyone who is willing to use marketing as the basis for strategy is likely to acquire leadership in an industry or a market fast and almost without risk.” Peter Drucker, Management Guru & “the worlds leading thinker”