Futures and sustainabilities - Perspectives and Tools Steen Svendsen, Futurist Public Futures / House of Futures.

Præsentationer af emnet: "Futures and sustainabilities - Perspectives and Tools Steen Svendsen, Futurist Public Futures / House of Futures."— Præsentationens transcript:

1 Futures and sustainabilities - Perspectives and Tools Steen Svendsen, Futurist Public Futures / House of Futures

2 12.30 – 13.15Futures and sustainabilities - perspectives and tools 13.15 – 14.30Walk and exercise - back casting 14.30 – 15.30Plenary work shop - working with your own project, mapping the regional trends Program

3 Fremtiden er givet Fremtiden er usikker Fremtiden skabes ForståelseFremtidenMange fremtider Din/jeres ønskelige fremtid FormålAt forudsige fremtiden Risikovurdering, udarbejdelse af alternative fremtider, mulighedsrum Definering og realisering af den ønskelige fremtid TilgangeDen sandsynlige fremtid Den sandsynlige og de mulige fremtider Den ønskelige fremtid AdfærdTilpasserProaktivVisionær, skabende Tre tilgange til fremtiden

4 The Future is Certain “The Future” The Future is Uncertain “Futures” The Future is Created “The Preferred Future” ApproachThe probable future The probable and possible futures The preferred future PrinciplePredicting the future Outlining alternative futures Defining and realising the preferred future PurposeTo identify consequences To outline possibilities and risks To outline pathways, backcasting BehaviourAdaptationProactiveVisionary Favoured Methods Quantitative, trend analyses, Prognosis Qualitative trend analyses, exploratory scenarios Normative scenarios, future workshops, backcasting, visioning

5 ”Sense of opportunity” Holdninger til fremtiden ”No sense at all” ”Sense of urgency”

6 The Future is certain The possible future Method: Prognosis

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9 The Future is uncertain The probable and possible futures Method: Scenarios

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11 We realize, that when we put our minds to it, we can develop technology, organizations, political institutions and business models that allow us to prosper in ways that do not jeopardize planet Earth. Collectively, we are approaching a state of global stewardship in which we manage out rationally, like any sensible landowner would his property. Vi indser, at når vi tror på det, kan vi udvikle teknologier, organisationer, politiske institutioner og forretnings- modeller, der giver os mulighed for at udvikle os på måder, der ikke truer planeten Jorden. Kollektivt nærmer vi os en tilstand global forvaltning, hvor vi styrer rationelt, som enhver fornuftig grundejer ville styre sin ejendom. Scenario #1: MAN-MADE WORLD

12 We realize that everything is nature, and so are we. We are one with Mother Earth, and we share a common biology and collective consciousness. On a deeper level, these are the sources of meaning that we all tap into, regardless of nationality, religion or culture. Vi indser, at alt er natur, og det er vi også. Vi er ét med Moder Jord, og vi deler en fælles biologi og kollektive bevidsthed. På et dybere plan, er dette kilder til mening for os alle uanset nationalitet, religion eller kultur. Scenario #2: POWER OF NATURE

13 MAN-MADE WORLD ”There is nothing wrong with the world that can’t be cured by what is right in the world” Science tells us we are in the Anthropocene Steadily accumulating data and knowledge We rationally apply the capacity at our disposal –Political, corporate, technological, economic, knowledge People and science Stewardship

14 THE POWER OF NATURE ”We are part of the world and to save it we need to start with ourselves” We are rooted in nature We tap into deep sources of meaning Movements and currents – in dialogue and mutual inspiration We seek fulfillment Extension of individualization, immaterialisation, reflexive society Humankind is maturing and becomes an organic part of life on Earth

15 The fundamental and the winning agendas The Winning - Visions, non-material values - Qualitative measurement e.g. changing belief, mind shifting - Focus on new thinking, leadership - Next practice - New infrastructure, new societies - Software (belief systems) The Fundamental - Fundamental requirements and material values - Quantitative measurement e.g. behavioral change - Focus on legality, precedent, management - Best practice - Resilience - Hardware (technologies) Public Futures The interplay between the two agendas are crucial

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17 The Future is created The preferred future Method: Visioning, backcasting

18 Present Future Stage 1 Stage 2Stage 3 Barriers and opportunities for realizing the vision Vision of your organization/ project Concrete initiatives, and action now Backcasting - from vision to action public futures

19 Stage 1 Vision for your organization/ project “Futures from the heart.“ Bezold. A vision is an expression of a desire to shape the future. A vision is about what we want. It is a preferred future that could become reality. A inspiration that gives meaning and direction in everyday life to project staff and stakeholders. Common frame of reference in everyday life.

20 Present Future Stage 1 Stage 2Stage 3 Barriers and opportunities for realizing the vision The vision of your organization/ project Concrete initiatives, and action now Backcasting - from vision to action Stage 1 Stage 2Stage 3 List 3-4 barriers and 3-4 opportunities for for realizing the vision Formulate a headline and 2-3 lines List 2-4 initiatives and actions