CEESA Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis Senior Research Specialist Poul Erik Morthorst Risø National Laboratory The Technical University of Denmark

Organisation I Funded by the Strategic Research Council as a 4 year project Partners:

Development of Long Term Sustainable Energy System Scenarios

Organisation II Subdivided into 5 Work Packages WP 1: Long term sustainable energy system scenarios – Definition and Development WP2 : Renewable Energy in Transportation, especially biomass WP3: The Future Electric Power System – Centralized and/or Decentralized Solutions WP4: Market Development and Public Regulation – instruments to implement the sustainable scenarios WP5: Environmental Assessment of Energy Scenarios - LCA

WP-interactions Development of Preliminary Scenarios Preliminary LCA-screening

WP-interactions Final Scenarios including LCA-analyses

100% Renewable Scenarios

Three scenarios Mostly Wind Mostly Biomass High Demand

Scenarios developed for the Danish association of Engineers

Highlights I Store besparelser Rumvarme – 50% (2030) + -20% (2050) Industri – 40% - 20% Elforbrug – 50% (private) – 30%(industri) – 10%(2050) Mere industriel kraftvarme + fjernvarme Lavere vækst I transporten Stabiliseret fra % af vejtransport på skib og bane – 50% I % på biofuels og 20% på el i % på biofuels, el og brint I 2050

Highlights II Fuel cells ind I energiforsyningen micro FC CHP 10% af individuelle opvarmning I 2030 FC kraftværker efter % I : al el baseret på FC eller biogas/gasifikation af biomasse Mere VE Vindkraft 6000 MW I 2030 – endnu mere I 2050? Bedre udnyttelse af biomasspotentailet 180PJ ift 90 PJ I dag. Solvarme, PV og bølgekraft I moderat omfang Varmepumper I stort omfang

Centrale spørgsmål Hvordan opnår vi så store besparelser? Kvoter, hvide certifikater, standarder…. det alt sammen? Vi skal have mere fjernvarme – er der en konflikt til store besparelser I rumvarme?? Hvilken tariffering skal evt. anvendes?? Transporten skal kraftigt omlægges biofuels, el og brint…… VE investering I og regulering af vindkraften… hvilke systemer anvender vi? Flere inmcentimenter til biomasse-produktion Hvordan indpasses varmepumper I det samlede system, hvilke instrumenter bruger vi?

Wind power in Western Denmark

Wind Power covered approx. 44% of Power consumption in January in Western Denmark

Wind power in Western Denmark Wind Power covered approx. 44% of Power consumption in January in Western Denmark … and 36% on average in Denmark

Impact on Spot Price

Det fremtidige energiforbrug Growing energy consumption in the future – 80% from fossil fuel Source: IEA

IEA Emissions Reduktionsscenarie til 2050

IEA Emissions reduktionsomkostninger