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Offentliggjort afEdith Jessen Redigeret for ca. et år siden
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1 Analyse af geografiske valgresultater Søren Risbjerg Thomsen srt@ps.au.dk Institut for Statskundskab Aarhus Universitet
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2 Etablering af politisk-økologisk database Data på ca. 2.000 afstemningssteder Samtlige typer valg siden 1979 -Valgdeltagelse, partiernes stemmer, social statistik ca. hvert femte år Siden 2001 –Opstillede kandidater, personlige stemmer Aktuelt: Udvikler software til opgørelse af data på konstante områder over tid (ved hjælp af vej-database)
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3 Afstemningsteder i Danmark
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5 Økologisk Inferens
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8 Konstruktion af homogene politiske regioner
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14 Political regions in Denmark Based on Cluster analysis of logit change between consecutive elections for The Danish Parliament 1979-2001 The European Parliament 1979-1999 EU referendums 1986-2000
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15 How would you divide Denmark in only two homogeneous politcal regions?
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16 Two clusters
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17 In three?
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18 Central Copenhagen emerge
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19 Jutland emerge
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20 Bornholm emerge
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21 North Jutland emerge
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22 Rich part of Copenhagen emerge
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23 South Jutland emerge
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24 Århus emerge
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25 West Jutland emerge
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26 Ribe County emerge
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27 Funen emerge
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28 End of clusters You can do better when you have GIS: Master thesis by Kristian Elgaard Pedersen
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29 Example: MA Western Copenhagen Constituency
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31 Local Strength H = (D a – D e ) – (C a - C e ) D a : Candidate’s actual share of district votes (average share of preferential votes + matching share of list votes) D e : Candidate’s expected share of district votes (average share of party’s votes in the district over the past five elections per nominated party candidate) C a : Party’s actual share of constituency votes per nominated candidate C e : Party’s expected share of constituency votes per nominated candidate (average share of party’s votes in the constituency over the last five elections per nominated candidate in the constituency
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33 Constituency of Ringkjøbing
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35 Nomination and Residential Effects in Rural and Urban Areas
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36 Influence of Local Political Experience on Nomination and Residential Effects
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37 Influence of National Political Experience on Nomination and Residential Effects
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38 THE END Looking forward to more exciting GIS applications
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