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1 Analyse af geografiske valgresultater Søren Risbjerg Thomsen Institut for Statskundskab Aarhus Universitet.

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1 1 Analyse af geografiske valgresultater Søren Risbjerg Thomsen srt@ps.au.dk Institut for Statskundskab Aarhus Universitet

2 2 Etablering af politisk-økologisk database Data på ca. 2.000 afstemningssteder Samtlige typer valg siden 1979 -Valgdeltagelse, partiernes stemmer, social statistik ca. hvert femte år Siden 2001 –Opstillede kandidater, personlige stemmer Aktuelt: Udvikler software til opgørelse af data på konstante områder over tid (ved hjælp af vej-database)

3 3 Afstemningsteder i Danmark

4 4

5 5 Økologisk Inferens

6 6

7 7

8 8 Konstruktion af homogene politiske regioner

9 9

10 10

11 11

12 12

13 13

14 14 Political regions in Denmark Based on Cluster analysis of logit change between consecutive elections for The Danish Parliament 1979-2001 The European Parliament 1979-1999 EU referendums 1986-2000

15 15 How would you divide Denmark in only two homogeneous politcal regions?

16 16 Two clusters

17 17 In three?

18 18 Central Copenhagen emerge

19 19 Jutland emerge

20 20 Bornholm emerge

21 21 North Jutland emerge

22 22 Rich part of Copenhagen emerge

23 23 South Jutland emerge

24 24 Århus emerge

25 25 West Jutland emerge

26 26 Ribe County emerge

27 27 Funen emerge

28 28 End of clusters You can do better when you have GIS: Master thesis by Kristian Elgaard Pedersen

29 29 Example: MA Western Copenhagen Constituency

30 30

31 31 Local Strength H = (D a – D e ) – (C a - C e ) D a : Candidate’s actual share of district votes (average share of preferential votes + matching share of list votes) D e : Candidate’s expected share of district votes (average share of party’s votes in the district over the past five elections per nominated party candidate) C a : Party’s actual share of constituency votes per nominated candidate C e : Party’s expected share of constituency votes per nominated candidate (average share of party’s votes in the constituency over the last five elections per nominated candidate in the constituency

32 32

33 33 Constituency of Ringkjøbing

34 34

35 35 Nomination and Residential Effects in Rural and Urban Areas

36 36 Influence of Local Political Experience on Nomination and Residential Effects

37 37 Influence of National Political Experience on Nomination and Residential Effects

38 38 THE END Looking forward to more exciting GIS applications


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