Økonomisk Perspektiv Skrøbelig vækst Cheføkonom Helge J. Pedersen Debatmøde i Erhvervsforum Nimb Tivoli, 8. maj 2014 • 3/15/2013

Hovedscenariet – vækstfremgang i år • De avancerede økonomier driver verdensvæksten - de fremvoksende har problemer • Sverige bliver Nordens vækstlokomotiv: – Adstadigt tempo i Danmark. Indikatorerne peger op – eksporten leder opsvinget • Lempelig pengepolitik længe endnu på globalt plan • Geopolitiske risici knyttet til bl.a. situationen i Ukraine Global 2 • 23 April • 2 • Helge J. Pedersen

Lav inflation og høj ledighed… Global 3 • 23 April • 3 • Helge J. Pedersen

… baner vejen for fortsat lave styringsrenter. Nationalbanken har sat renten op af hensyn til kronekursen • Hence, we do not exclude further monetary policy easing and we firmly reiterate that we continue to expect the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time. • This expectation is based on an overall subdued outlook for inflation extending into the medium term, given the broad-based weakness of the economy, the high degree of unutilised capacity and subdued money and credit creation. At the same time, we are closely following developments on money markets. The Governing Council is unanimous in its commitment to using also unconventional instruments within its mandate in order to cope effectively with risks of a too prolonged period of low inflation. Mario Draghi, 3 April2014 Global 4 • 23 April • 4 • Helge J. Pedersen

Forward guidance er med til at holde renten nede i euroområdet Global 5 • 23 April • 5 • Helge J. Pedersen

Lånerenterne bunder ud, men vil være lave længe endnu… Danmark • 3/15/ • 6 • Helge J. Pedersen 6

Danmark Væksten er forsvundet ud af den danske økonomi og kommer kun langsomt tilbage… 7 • 23 April • 7 • Helge J. Pedersen

…indikatorerne for 2014 er dog pæne… Danmark 8 • 3/15/ • 8 • Helge J. Pedersen

2014K2 LavkonjunkturHøjkonjunktur..og lavtrykket over dansk økonomi aftager i styrke Danmark

Især industrien ser optimistisk på fremtiden • 23 April • Helge J. Pedersen Danmark

Den svage udvikling har især været forårsaget af den private indenlandske efterspørgsel Danmark 11 • 23 April • Helge J. Pedersen

Måske fordi vi har et stort løn problem. Tyskland/Danmark Source: Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, 12 • 23 April • Helge J. Pedersen

Derfor er det vigtigt at følge produktivitetskommissionens hovedanbefalinger: • Styrk konkurrenceevne, dynamik og internationalisering • Styrk kvaliteten af uddannelserne og deres værdi for arbejdsmarkedet • Skab gode rammer for nye løsninger og effektivitet i det offentlige Danmark 13 • 23 April • Helge J. Pedersen

Thank you! Helge J. Pedersen Global Chief Economist Economic Research Nordea Markets is the name of the Markets departments of Nordea Bank Norge ASA, Nordea Bank AB (publ), Nordea Bank Finland Plc and Nordea Bank Danmark A/S. The information provided herein is intended for background information only and for the sole use of the intended recipient. The views and other information provided herein are the current views of Nordea Markets as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. This notice is not an exhaustive description of the described product or the risks related to it, and it should not be relied on as such, nor is it a substitute for the judgement of the recipient. The information provided herein is not intended to constitute and does not constitute investment advice nor is the information intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The information contained herein has no regard to the specific investment objectives, the financial situation or particular needs of any particular recipient. Relevant and specific professional advice should always be obtained before making any investment or credit decision. It is important to note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Nordea Markets is not and does not purport to be an adviser as to legal, taxation, accounting or regulatory matters in any jurisdiction. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without the prior written consent from Nordea Markets. 14 • 23 April • Helge J. Pedersen