Gott und Wilson helfen weiter The dubious achievements of the 28th President of the U.S. at Paris 1919 Rolf Czeskleba-Dupont, RUC
HJEMLØS – FREDLØS ?
Forløbet (1) 1918 September/October: Germany requested President Wilson to arrange an armistice on the basis of the Fourteen Points. Germany and Austria-Hungary accepted President Wilson's demands. Colonel House met Lloyd George and Clemenceau to explain the Fourteen Points and to reassure them.
Forløbet (2) November: 4. Allies accepted Fourteen Points as a basis for peace (reservations accepted by the Americans) 9. Kaiser Wilhelm II abdicated 11. Armistice signed at Compiegne + American mid-term Congressional elections: Republican Party won a sweeping victory over Wilson's Democrats
Forløbet (3) December 1918: 1. Allied Prime Ministers (Lloyd George, Clemenceau and Orlando) discuss peace terms. No American representative 14. President Wilson arrived in Europe British General Election. Lloyd George's coalition won a massive victory 16. President Wilson and Clemenceau met for first time. Clemenceau ceased to oppose Wilson's intention to attend the Peace Conference.
Forløbet (4) January Peace Conference formally opened in Paris 22.Council of Ten invites parties to the Russian Civil War to a conference at Prinkipo to call for a truce between them 25. Plenary Session of the Peace Conference: establishment of League of Nations 30. Dispute Wilson vs. British Dominions over former German colonies resolved
Forløbet (5) February: 3First Meeting of the League of Nations Commission, with Wilson in chair 4The Soviet Government accepted Prinkipo proposal, but conditions unacceptable to Council of Ten 20Admiral Kolchak, Head of Siberian Provisional Government, rejected Prinkipo proposal
Forløbet (6) March: 11. J. M. Keynes: sum total of reparations should be left out of the Treaty to be determined later 14. First meeting of the Council of Four: Wilson and Lloyd George offered France guarantee against aggression if she would give up the Rhine frontier 17. Council of Ten agreement on German disarmament 26. Lloyd George : Fontainebleau Memorandum for a peace of moderation and justice
Forløbet (7) April: 1. Lloyd George: Danzig Free City under government of the League of Nations 7.President Wilson threatened to leave the Conference unless Allies more moderate in demands for reparations 1o. Council of Four agreed on reparations clauses which left the sum total to be determined in Wilson and Clemenceau settled Rhineland issue (Lloyd George in London). France to occupy the territory for up to fifteen years.
Forløbet (8) April 14.President Wilson declared his opposition to the Italian demands for the cession to them of Fiume and most of Dalmatia 19.Orlando formally presented Italian claims to Council of Four - met fierce opposition from Wilson 22. Italians withdrew from the Conference in protest at Wilson's attitude 25. Plenary Session of the Conference: final draft of the Covenant of the League of Nations 30. Council of Four: Chinese province of Shantung to Japan
Forløbet (9) May: 2. Council of Four: German Austria must not seek unity with Germany 6. Plenary Session of the Conference: draft of peace treaty with Germany 7. First Session of the Peace Congress: draft terms presented to the Germans.
Forløbet (10) June: 1. British Empire Delegation: reservations about the peace terms; for concessions to the Germans 2. Lloyd George informed Council of Four of his Delegation's decision - met with resentment from Clemenceau and Wilson 5. J. M. Keynes resigned from British Delegation in protest at the peace terms; see ”The economic consequences of the peace” (London 1920)
Forløbet (11) JUNE 9. Council of Four: plebiscite in Upper Silesia instead of ceding it to the Poles outright 16. Germans informed of final peace terms with 5 days to accept 21German battle fleet scuttles itself at Scapa Flow 22Germany accepts the Treaty 28Second Session of Peace Congress: Signing the Treaty at Versailles (VT) N.B. 5 års dagen af mordet i Sarajevo på tronfølgeren Franz Ferdinand af Østrig-Ungarn
Engelsk karikatur: Ned med flaget!
Max Weber ( ) GIK ind for værdifrihed; mod ’katedersocialisternes’ misbrug af podiet; med Kejseren som øverstbefalende Efter Paris-Konferencen siger han til samfundsvidenskabsstuderende: ”Wir sind gleich den Juden zu einem Pariavolk geworden” idealtypus PARIAVOLK: EXTREM FORNEDRELSE
Afhopper 1: William C.Bullitt Forlod amerikansk delegation 17. maj 1919 ”Sorry that You did not fight our fight to the finish”: ”If You had made Your fight in the open, instead of behind closed doors, You would have carried with You the public opinion of the world” (afskedsbrev til Pres. Wilson) Rammende kritik: Punkt 1 i Wilson’s 14 punkter fra januar 1918 krævede ”åbne aftaler, opnået på åben vis”
Afhopper 2: John M.Keynes Forlod den britiske delegation den efter Clemenceaus og Wilsons forhandlingsblokade *Clemenceau: IP-realist; skal sikre det sårede Frankrig mod næste invasion *Wilson – den store skuffelse; ude af stand til at anvende USA’s nyvundne hegemoniske magt: ”this blind and deaf Don Quixote entering a cavern where the swift and glittering blade was in the hands of the adversary” (ECP,s.38) Truer UK+F for sent – pengene er allerede anvist!
KEYNES: DYBDE ELLER ØKONOMISME (1) ? Keynes hovedpåstande: De allieredes tab anslået for højt Tysklands betalingsevne overvurderet Øget tysk eksport = hvis merimport? Reparation i naturalier ikke bedre, når ¼ af kulproduktionen frataget (Øvre Silesia, Saar etc.)
KEYNES: DYBDE ELLER ØKONOMISME (2) ? Hvad mon genetablering af effektiv sikkerhed i Frankrig og Belgien kostede? (Vest-)Tysklands potentielle produktion voksede med 2,8% om året (næste) MEN: HVAD SKYLDTES POTENTIALETS MANGLENDE REALISERING? N.B. Midt under oprustningen i 1938 underudnyttet med ca. 1/3 !
(Vest-)Tysklands industripotentiale
KEYNES: DYBDE ELLER ØKONOMISME (3) ? Til oprustningen brugtes mange gange, hvad der skulle betales i reparationer (Mantoux 1946) Men: på det tidspunkt havde ’revanchisterne’ netop afskaffet/omgået VT’s bestemmelser Produktivitetsfremgang med faldende realløn (Kuczynski 1988) = indre tvang tysk krigseventyr = patologisk gentagelsestvang (Hans-Ulrich Wehler: Anden Tredjeveårskrig)?
KEYNES: DYBDE ELLER ØKONOMISME (4) ? tysk krigseventyr = patologisk gentagelsestvang? Eller = historisk systemtvang (også Frankrig skulle slås i to omgange; parallel iflg. Verdens-system analysen)! Snarere: Begge dele! Thi: revolutionsforsøget gik galt, uden at man kan laste T. eensidigt for det (som Franskmænd indskrev i VT)
Keynes psykologiske dybde Som opstræbende hegemonialmagt efter UK blev USA også mobiliseret for kampen om verdensherredømme USA kunne tillade sig liberalere omgangsformer, sålænge det var nok MEN: Wilson’s passivitet i Paris 1919 var af det onde: 14 sygdomsperioder, sidst i april 1919 – en isoleret verdensleder! Karisma uden evner!
Keynes’ politiske grænse “The imperative task of suppressing Bolshevism has no part in Mr Keynes's analysis”: “Bolshevism is a menace to absentee ownership…the foundation of law and order” “The Fourteen Points were drawn up without due appreciation of this paramount place which absentee ownership has come to occupy in the modern civilized countries” (Thorstein Veblen’s anmeldelse af ECP 1920)
Veblen’s vision af antikommunismen Paramount need of making the world safe for a democracy of absentee owners Germany must not be crippled in such a degree as would leave the imperial establishment materially weakened in its campaign against Bolshevism abroad or radicalism at home.