Fróðskaparsetur Føroya Tórshavn 26. September 2013 Avbjóðingar í framtíðar útbúgvingum Udfordringer fremtiden stiller for uddannelse Jón Torfi Jónasson Menntavísindasvið HÍ, School of Education University of Iceland jtj@hi.is http://www3.hi.is/~jtj/

JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013 Mine udgangspunkter My points of departure I am assuming – and I believe, that the Nordic education enterprise is generally doing quite well, in many respects very well, even though there is, as always, room for improvement. Thus we are wondering how we may do even better and continue our good work for many decades to come. My approach is both very positive and optimistic. I want to ensure that our citizens young and old can take the initiative, be creative and be able to be in control of their lives and environment. Jeg går ud fra - og jeg tror, at nordisk uddannelse generelt klarer sig ganske godt og i mange henseender meget godt, selv om der er, som altid, plads til forbedringer. Derfor overvejer vi, hvordan vi kan gøre det vi gør, endnu bedre og fortsætte vores gode arbejde i mange årtier ind i fremtiden. Min tilgang er både meget positiv og optimistisk. Jeg ønsker at sikre, at vores borgere unge som gamle kan tage initiativ, være kreative og være i kontrol over deres liv og miljø. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013 Hvor er vi henne I vores diskussion vedrørende uddannelse, meget generelt? Where are we now within education? On balance? How is the school system addressing the past, the present and the future? JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013 Indhold Content Hvorfor tale om det? Udfordringer for uddannelse Fremtiden Uddannelse Inerti, træghed, konservativisme Hvordan overfører man idéer om fremtiden til uddannelse. Hvilken mekanisme(r) kunne man bruge? Why talk about this? Challenges for education The future Education Inertia, resistance to change How do you map the future onto education? What mechanism(s) could be used? JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013 Hvorfor tale om det? Why talk about it? Et vigtigt område – forsømt indenfor uddannelses sektoren. Det er meget vigtigt at den uddannelse som vi tilbyder er ægte og troværdig, d.v.s har det indhold og den kultur som idéen om uddannelse bygger på. Jeg vil også tage op diskussionen om ansvar: hvilket ansvar har myndighederne, akademikerne, skolerne og lærerene vis-à-vis de spørgsmål jeg rejser? Hidtil så er der (næsten) ingen som tror at han har noget ansvar og det synes jeg at er meget alvorligt. An important area - neglected within the education sector. It is very important that the education that we offer is genuine and credible, i.e. has the content and the culture on which the idea of ​​education is based. I also want to take up the discussion of responsibility: What responsibility do the authorities, schools and teachers assume vis- à-vis the questions I raise. So far there is no one that thinks he has any responsibility for this arena and I think that is very serious. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013 Hvorfor tale om det? Why talk about it? Jeg spørger: Hvem følger på en systematisk måde udviklingen på adskillige områder, med hensyn til uddannelse? I ask: Who follows in a systematic way the development in several areas, with reference to education? JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

De store udfordringer for uddannelse - i fremtiden The Grand Challenges for education - in the future Her nævner jeg de største udfordringer og jeg synes de er næsten ikke diskuterede - nogen steder (inden for uddannelse, undtagen helst nr. 2) Overføring (projicering) af fremtiden oven på uddannelse Brobygning mellem forskning og praksis inden for uddannelse Uddannelse, demokrati og lighed Se at LLL bliver central i uddannelses systemet Hvordan kan man lade det virke at skolerne tager initiativet for fremtiden Uddannelse af lærere – fragmentering af professionen. Here I am noting the biggest challenges – and they are generally not discussed anywhere (within education, except nr. 2) Mapping the future onto education Forging the research-praxis nexus within the system of education Education, democracy and equity Moving LLL to the centre of the educational system The teacher as the initiator of change dilemma The professional education of teachers – the fragmentation problem. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013 Fremtiden The future Can we predict? No, but of course, there are quite a few very important phenomena we know that are evolving or changing fast – very fast and very robustly and regularly What characterizes the development? There are quite many areas developing exponentially and it is very important to understand what it means. But unfortunately there are quite many who do not. Kan vi forudsige, spå? Nej, men jovist, der er ganske mange meget vigtige fænomener vi ved at udvikler sig eller ændrer sig hurtigt – lynhurtigt og mæget regelmæssigt. Hvad præger udviklingen? Der er ganske mange områder som udvikles eksponentielt og det er meget vigtigt at forstå hvad det betyder. Men desværre er de ganske mange som ikke gør det. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

I mange områder så er det muligt at forudse hvad der sker Jeg viser nogle eksempler som alle viser eksponentiel vækst (Albert Bartlett) Og vi snakker om ændringer som er helt regelmæssige over lang tid. Most of this is robustly regular, not only over 25 years but probably 125 years and the growth 1970-2010 could have been accurately predicted in most cases. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013 An example of exponential growth Assume that the start value is the number of students going to university, expressed as % of one cohort. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

Higher education: enrolment in Iceland 1911-1970 JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

Higher education: enrolment in Iceland 1911-1970-2010 JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

Expansion of HE systems – The Nordic countries JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

Expansion of HE systems – Three different systems JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013 The rate of growth in scientific publication and the decline in coverage provided by Science Citation Index Peder Olesen Larsen1 and Markus von Ins2 Scientometrics. 2010 September; 84(3): 575–603. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2909426/ Fig. 3. Number of records for nine databases 1907–2007 (semi logarithmic scale) JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013 The rate of growth in scientific publication and the decline in coverage provided by Science Citation Index Peder Olesen Larsen1 and Markus von Ins2 Scientometrics. 2010 September; 84(3): 575–603. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2909426/ “... whether the growth rate of scientific publication is declining? The answer is that traditional scientific publishing, that is publication in peer-reviewed journals, is still increasing although there are big differences between fields. There are no indications that the growth rate has decreased in the last 50 years. At the same time, publication using new channels, for example conference proceedings, open archives and home pages, is growing fast.” “A tentative conclusion is that old, well established disciplines including mathematics and physics have had slower growth rates than new disciplines including computer science and engineering sciences but that the overall growth rate for science still has been at least 4.7% per year. However, the new publication channels, conference contributions, open archives and publications available on the net, for example in home pages, must be taken into account and may change this situation.” JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

Eksempel på eksponentiel vækst JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

Et eksempel, der viser vækst i tidsskrifter om klimaændringer JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

Eksempel på eksponentiel vækst JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013 Staðan tekin JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

Eternal exponetial growth? From Kristín Vala and Harald Sverdrup JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013 Men denne udvikling er ikke let at måle, men den er meget intressant og vigtig – men også uklar. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

Stærke grunde til at ændre uddannelse Powerful reasons to change education The school system has the role to prepare for the future. Developments in recent years suggest we should put more emphasis on ethics. There are massive big global challenges related to demographics, energy, food, climate, ... The emphasis placed on sustainability is a good reason to direct our system far more towards this issue. New knowledge in all disciplines requires that old content is replaced by new (e.g. genetics should play a very big role). Skolesystemet har den rolle at forberede for fremtiden. Udviklingen i de sidste år peger på at vi skulle lægge større vægt på etik. Der er massive store globale, udfordringer, i forbindelse med demografi, energi, mad, klima, … Den vægt vi lægger på bæredygtighed er i for sig god grund til at rette vore system langt mere imod den sag. Ny viden i alle discipliner kræver at man skifter ud nyt for gammelt (f.eks. genetik skulle spille en meget stor rolle). JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

Stærke grunde til at ændre uddannelse Powerful reasons to change education New technology could change our ways of working in almost every area we deal with, but also in our social life. A whole new culture to communicate both socially and at work can transform the concept of education. The job market is changing in many ways; the old job can become completely transformed and a large number of new jobs emerge. In addition, people will switch jobs more than before. Completely new skills are required and the school system must adapt. There are good research projects in education that suggest ways to substantial changes in how to educate people inside and outside the system. Ny teknologi kunne ændre vores arbejdsmåder i næsten alle områder vi beskæftiger os med, men også i vores sociale liv. En helt ny kultur at kommunikere både samfundsmæssigt og i arbejde kan transformere begrebet at uddanne sig. Job markedet ændrer sig på mange måder; gamle job kan helt transformeres og et stort antal nye job bliver til. Desuden skifter man job mere en før. Helt nye kompetencer kræves og skolesystemet må tilpasse sig. Der findes gode forskningprojekter inden for uddannelse som kan inspirere store forændringer i hvordan man uddanner indenfor og udenfor systemet. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

So why should we, not be content with small steps forward? The formal argument. Many statutes (laws) on education, require the school system to prepare for the future, not just for to-morrow, but also the day after (even if we don’t exactly know how). II. The ethical dimension. There is a strong indication that social and ethical issues are (largely neglected) long term goals for education. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

So why should we, not be content with small steps forward? III. Global or grand challenges are now considered to call for a total rethink of the funding of research; similarly it calls for a re-evaluation of the educational system for the same purposes. See e.g. 2009– Lund declaration ; climate change, food and energy security and the ageing society; See also“New worlds – new solutions”. See also 2008, Challenging Europe’s Research: Rationales for the European Research Area (ERA). IV. The sustainability issue. The (over)use of the worlds resources and the general call for a self sustainable local and global economy and culture. This presents an enormous challenge to the future generations; a host of problems need to be solved. Self sustainability, use of resources and energy production see e.g. UNESCO’s Teaching and Learning for a Sustainable Future. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

So why should we, not be content with small steps forward? V. New knowledge. The fast development of scientific and technological knowledge calls for a thorough revision of curriculum in a number of fields but probably more importantly for totally new subjects for study. We can find fields with doubling time down to 2-5 years but even if it is 10-20 years this is very fast. This should be taken into account and the redesign of the curriculum should be considered. VI. New technology. Technological development allows for dramatic changes in a whole spectrum of tasks. In the computer field the doubling time can be around 1-3 years. All kinds of tools for designing, communicating, writing, calculating etc. etc. will be used. Many tasks of today are already obsolete. Assume our students will use these tools; all of them and much more. “General-purpose computing capacity grew at an annual rate of 58%. The world's capacity for bidirectional telecommunication grew at 28% per year, closely followed by the increase in globally stored information (23%).” Martin Hilbert1* and Priscila López2 2011 Science April 1 http://www.sciencemag.org/content/332/6025/60.full.pdf JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

So why should we, not be content with small steps forward? VII. New cultures of connection and communication. The communication technology similarly calls for important changes. Whether it is the environment afforded by Web 2.0 or Web 3.0 (semantic web) , 4.0 (symbiotic web) we may anticipate important changes. The recent development of GSM, tablets etc. underlines that much of the technology the children use today will soon become obsolete; but some of ours schools still operate as if not even these instruments are there, as normal tools of their lives. The same applies to other levels of education. VIII. Changes in labour markets. Global changes in the labour market, both cultural and technical within the jobs themselves, but also mobility issues. Jobs change fast, people move fast within a particular labour market; the situation in many sectors is already very different from what was the case only 10 years ago. These changes call for a discussion of the role of the education system, not only to respond to the employment market but to have a proactive influence. Education could play an active role rather than the thoroughly passive one it is accustomed to. See Nearly half of US jobs could be at risk of computerization, Oxford Martin School study shows, this is over the next two decades. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

So why should we, not be content with small steps forward? IX. The demand for new skills for our new economy and culture. This is a discussion that has got furthest but perhaps has made least headway. Now there are easily 20, 25 years since this claim started to emerge (forgetting Dewey in the 1910s). The call was for new or 21st century skills, or key skills or competencies (European Union). but has not had much success X. Substantial research on education, teaching and schooling affords a lot of suggestions for change to our educational practices. Thousands of research papers are published on every aspect of educational practice every year (perhaps 6-10 thousand articles every month). But it is very unclear what impact it has on education; in fact the channels for the interaction between the two are not very wide. But a host of suggestions for change exist. But research should mostly inspire further research, let it not necessarily control all we do. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013 Skills that probably should play a central role in our curriculum; not a marginal role as some people think. New skills, 21st century skills http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/education_culture/publ/pdf/ll-learning/keycomp_en.pdf http://www.p21.org/ http://www3.hi.is/~jtj/greinar/JTJ%20DISCUSSION%20PAPER%20May%2031-2010.pdf JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013 Uddannelse Education My view is that one should not wait for all the new developments and try to react. But this seem to be the stance now. I think we should be more proactive, be at the front. But it seems that there is not much interest in it. Mit udgangspunkt er at man skal ikke vente på alle de nye udviklinger og så prøve at reagere. Men sådan virker det nu. Man skulle være proaktiv, være med på fronten. Men det ser ud til at der er ikke in stor interesse for det. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013 Uddannelse Education Hvorfor uddanner man folk i skole i 2+9+3 = 14, år eller 3+9+3+5 = 20 år eller .... Til hvilken grad er det for fortiden (kulturarven o.s.v.)? nutiden og den komplekse verden vi lever i daglig? fremtiden og det samfund og det arbejdsliv der venter os? Er det for personen, eller samfundet, eller arbejdslivet, eller måske alle disse og hvilken vægt skal man så lægge på hvert hensigt eller mål? Why do we educate people in school for 2 +9 +3 = 14 years or 3 +9 +3 +5 = 20 or more years To what extent is this for the past (cultural heritage etc.)? the present and the complex world we live in everyday? the future and the society and the work that awaits us? Is it for the person or the community, or work, or perhaps all of these and what weight should we put on each intention or goal? JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013 Uddannelse Education Og spørgsmålet er hvordan opnår man de mål man har for børn og unge og ældre som skal leve og fungere godt i 2030-2060 og i hvilken grad skulle den være anderledes en man troede var bedst i 1950 eller 1970 tallet. Jeg tror det skulle gøres helt anderledes. And the question is how do we achieve the goals we have for children and young and older people, for them to live and work successfully in 2030-2060 and to what extent should it be different than was thought to be best in 1950 or 1970. I think it should be done very differently. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013 Når jeg hævder at man har ikke tænkt som jeg gør nu så er det selvfølgelig uretfærdigt fordi vi har jo den flotte og jeg tror klassiske rapport: Delors four pillars of education, from the 1996 Learning: the Treasure Within: Learning to be informed and for some, to be skilled to do to be to live to know Men til trods for alle disse idéer er der mange som tror at skolen skulle kun beskæftige sig med de gamle mål: JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

To perspektiver - to historier Historien om udviklingen af ​​uddannelsen, hvordan vi lærer af uddannelse i gamle dage, deltager i den nuværende og forestiller os fremtidige metoder og opgaver for uddannelsen. Historien om den nuværende uddannelse, hvordan vi respekterer fortiden, forstår og håndterer nutiden og forbereder os for fremtiden. Vores fremtid Uddannelse i fremtiden Vores fortid Uddannelsesn historie Uddannelse i nutiden Vores nutid JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

En ny verden, nye kampe om læreplaner De grundlæggende målsætninger for uddannelse skal revurderes hele tiden Komplet fornyelse af de eksisterende fag Helt nye fag Fagene i de 19. og 20. århundreder Nye færdigheder --vigtige kompetencer Nye værktøjer, nye kulturer JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013 A schematic diagram indicating the way many people think (implicitly) about education, accepting a relatively sensible description for the 1950’s It is suggested here that a much more appropriate description or conceptual framework would be (note we are hinting at 5 x 20 year periods): JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

Inertia – Resistance to change Inerti - Modstand mod forandring Inertia – Resistance to change JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

Inerti, træghed, konservativisme Inertia, resistance, a conservative stance Ofte når man taler om ændringer så kommer man til sidst til at anerkende at der er nogle som ikke vil ændringer. Og der er mange i den gruppe når man kommer til uddannelse. Og jeg har fundet i det mindste ti gode grunde til at tro at uddannelses indhold, arbejdsmetoder, kultur og system vil ændre sig meget langsomt – alt for langsomt. Often when we talk about changes, in the end one comes to recognize that there are some people that don’t want change. And there are many in this group when one comes to education. And I have found at least ten good reasons to believe that the educational content, methods, culture and system will change very slowly – far too slowly. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

Mulige forklaringer hvorfor uddannelse vil ændre sig for langsomt Possible explanations why education will change too slowly Mulige forklaringer hvorfor uddannelse vil ændre sig for langsomt The general discourse is very conservative New ideas are unclear Old ideas were once good If we don't change nothing happens! The restraining forces are often powered by large vested interests Nobody as the overview over what is happening and is pushing for change Standards are very conservative Educational leaders are preoccupied with other things The logistics of change are overwhelming Research is essentially and largely backward looking Den generelle diskurs er meget konservativ Nye idéer er uklare Gamle idéer var engang god Hvis vi ikke ændrer, intet dårligt sker! Fastholdelseskræfterne er ofte drevet af store særinteresser Der ingen som har overblik over udviklingen og presser på for forandring Standarder er meget konservative System og skole ledere og lærere er optaget af andre ting Logistikken i ændring er overvældende Forskning er hovedsagelig og i vid udstrækning tilbageskuende JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013 What are we researching, talking about? Where is the focus? understandably? Hvad forsker vi med? Og hvad diskuterer vi i forbindelse med uddannelsens fremtid? Hvad fokuserer vi på, forståeligt nok? Uddannelses forskning generelt Uddannelses forskning sigted mod fremtiden Diskussion sigted mod de næste 5-15 år Diskussion sigted mod de næste 10-25 år JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

Why inertia? There are a number of important reasons. We now turn to the more complex but more intriguing plethora of interacting factors that hold back education, rightly or wrongly; note that I am certainly not talking about ill-meaning conspiratorial factors, but mostly implicit genuinely cultural or systemic factors that happen to be in control. Educational systems evolve notoriously slowly; their history manifests this very clearly; this applies to their form, operation and content. Traditions and traditional values and often very strong interests keep education in the throes of old time (some see this as the role of education). The traditions are strong and so are the restraining forces which stem from many sources. They relate to old or traditional values, old content and old ways of doing things and not least entrenched interests. Of course some old values should be cherished, but which? JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

Why inertia? There are a number of important reasons. Reason no. 1 The general discourse is conservative. A conservative discourse and ideas held by many outside the educational system who naturally control the course of its development. I am here referring to the views of many parents and politicians; somewhat conservative impetus from industry that the education system serve the economy (yes, but how is that best done ? and which economy?); teacher education, its content and organisation – related inter alia to the time since a lot of the teaching force graduated; conservative ideas proposed by the university as an institution about the education of young people and generally outdated notions about content and how new techniques, new content and new cultures could permeate education. As an agent in this would also be some well established standardised tests, which volunteer to gracefully take the central stage, marginalising other contenders. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

Why inertia? There are a number of important reasons. Reason no. 2 The new ideas that are to replace the old, are sometimes woolly or cloudy, not well moulded and sometimes even vacuous. Some might even not be very good! They may also be inherently very very difficult to implement. This applies inter alia to some new ideas that were proposed during the 20th century, e.g. applied to discovery or project learning, ideas fostering creativity, arts or moral values; this also applies to some of the 21st century skills programmes which have been proposed repeatedly for the last 20-30 years. This will probably also apply to the new basic factors in the new EC eight key competencies. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

Why inertia? There are a number of important reasons. Reason no. 3 The current ideas were once good. One reason why the push to introduce new ideas is somewhat undermined, is that the rationale, the utility and ambition behind the introduction of the current ideas, some time ago, were all convincing and credible, even though it took a long time for them to win their place. The proponents of some of those ideas may still be operative and still think the ideas they adopted or fought for or introduced stand the test of time. This is partly a problem that may be traced to the older (my) generation but may also influence the judgement of those outstanding young people who did so well with the content and operations of the traditional environment. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

Why inertia? There are a number of important reasons. Reason no. 4 Nothing dramatic happens if we don't exchange new ideas for old ones. In fact nothing happens ― yet. This is the fourth reason why it is somewhat cumbersome to secure the place for new ideas replacing old well established and tested ones. (It is relatively safe for the present era not to instigate changes). The ensuing problems are at least two: Young people are not given the opportunity to do a variety of interesting and valuable things, that new ideas, new skills, new technologies or new cultures might afford them; but of course they will survive nevertheless. The necessary pre-emptive and proactive action required by many of the grand challenges will be undermined. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

Why inertia? There are a number of important reasons. Reason no. 5 The stronghold of vested interests. It is especially important for those who want to argue for replacing new with old that one may seriously threaten a variety of vested interests and ideals of those who are already there. This may operate at several levels and perhaps present the most formidable obstacles of all I mention here. Here we may also introduce a variety of intra-institutional tensions that may stifle change. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

Why inertia? There are a number of important reasons. Reason no. 6 Lack of overview and lack of foresight. The sixth reason why new ideas don't emerge is that very few people who are engaged in education have the overview or a wide perspective over all the different, but pressing reasons for change. Very few have the responsibility or opportunity to follow the many quite substantial changes in the social and ethical and technological and cultural environment and speculate about the possible educational implications. The perspective we, in the educational arena, have is often very narrow, far too narrow. Fragmentation of the field of education is one of the most serious problems of education in general. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

Why inertia? There are a number of important reasons. Reason no. 7 Standards are conservative. The seventh reason relates to the metrics or indices that are used to indicate standards. These are implicitly very conservative, and the higher the stakes the more so. They are probably normally proposed and defended by those who have a relatively secure position to defend. They are also well intentioned and ambitious. Thus this is not meant to criticize their genuine ambition to retain a high standard. Standards are much more conservative than most of their proponents realise. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

Why inertia? There are a number of important reasons. Reason no. 8 Educational leaders who could take the initiative are preoccupied with other things. The demands and pressure on the school system are steadily on the increase and thereby the tasks for the leaders at all levels multiply. They cannot, despite their potential interest, take time to immerse themselves into the ideas and development required by the complex task of attending to the future. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

Why inertia? There are a number of important reasons. Reason no. 9 The number of actors is formidable. The purely logistic problem of implementation is huge. In 2010 the 0-15 world population was 1850 million, which means that each cohort was about 115 million. Given that the trend is towards 30 pupils per class that might mean 4 million teachers per cohort, or 50 million teachers for 12 cohorts. Introducing new ideas on a regular basis is a daunting task. In Europe with 20 pupils per class and 15 cohorts the corresponding numbers would be 720.000 teachers. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

Why inertia? There are a number of important reasons. Reason no. 10 Educational research is preoccupied with the present. The tenth reason relates to the relationship of educational practice to research. This is an intriguing situation but very frustrating. On the one hand, enormous amount of potential inspiration from research does not find its way into education. There is no venue. That is a major problem. On the other hand if one gets too preoccupied with research into particular problems one may get stuck with attempting to solve those without moving on. Thus the relationship with research is a major problem; it is an interesting paradox to be dealt with; a paradox because of the high hopes attached to the inspirational and guiding value of research concomitant with its potential conservatism. Thus I have presented a number of reasons why a prediction involving rather modest but gradual development of education is probably reasonable. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

Adskillige vejer til at kommunikere A variety of ways to communicate Der er mange godt udviklede måder at kommunikere på, oplyse, undervise og lære, … Vi har konsultationer, møder, skoler og universiteter, konferenser, tid-skrifter, forsknings projekter, udviklings projekter, specialiserede institutter eller enheder. Mange af de som vi har præges stærkt af nordiske værdier og samarbejde og andre også har stærk international forbindelse. Men det er langt fra at være tilstrækkeligt There are a plethora of traditional well developed ways to communicate, disseminate, teach and learn, … We have consultations, meetings, a variety of schools and colleges, conferences, journals, research projects, developmental projects, focussed institutes or units. Many of these have a strong international and some also a special Nordic character. But this is nowhere good enough JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

Adskillige vejer til at kommunikere A variety of ways to communicate Men det er langt fra at være tilstrækkeligt Man har derfor opdrættet fremtids orienterede institutter (til at fokusere på fremtiden), tankesmedjer (for at tænke over og inspirere) og adskillige hørings mekanismer, f. eks. Triple helix infra-strukturen til at prøve at løse nogle af de kommunikations og aktion problemer de traditionelle former ikke har løst. Men vi ved nu (specielt indenfor uddannelses sektoren) at det er ikke kun et kommunikations problem, man må også have ”lov til” og støtte til at udføre nye ideer. But this is nowhere good enough Thus people have come up with future institutes (to think ahead) think tanks (of various sorts to speculate and inspire) and consultation mechanisms like the Triple helix to remedy some of the problems of focussing on the future and on communication between the actors; but it is not only a problem of communication, there has to be a will and also a “license” to do something with new ideas. JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

Hvordan overfører man idéer om fremtiden til uddannelse? How do we map ideas about the future on to education? Der er tre forudsætninger: 1) Der må være tilgængelige mange idéer om fremtiden, e.g. scenarios, forudsigelser, spekulationer og information om nye eksperimenter i adskillelige felte. (Tænketank – men det er ikke tilstrækkeligt.) 2) Man må organisere et forum hvor de agenter som skal indvikles, f.eks. lærere, skole ledelse, politikere (nationale og kommunale), akademikere og fra arbejdslivet, kommer og debatterer hvilke inititativer skolen skulle tage. (Triple Helix – men det er ikke tilstrækkeligt.) 3) Man må også sikre at de fleste af agenterne, personlig er med i denne diskussion og bliver inspireret til at handle og ændre kulturen. Denne type af diskussion forgår nu ofte i forbindelse med læreplaner. (Dette er nødvendigt – men er det tilstrækkeligt?) There are three assumptions: 1) There must be available many ideas about the future, e.g. scenarios, predictions, speculations and information about new experiments for several boxes. (Think Tank – but this is not sufficient) 2) A forum must be organized where the agents, e.g. teachers, school management, policy-makers (national and local), academics and from industry come and discuss what steps the schools should take. (Triple Helix – but this is not enough.) 3) One must also ensure that most of the agents, are personally included in this discussion and are inspired to act and change the culture. This type of discussion now takes place with school curricula. (This must be included but does it suffice?) JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013 Hvordan tænker man på forbindelsen mellem de adskillige areaner? Måske skulle praksis fæltet have en større fokus end vi normalt tænker på i dette sammenhæng? Forskning Nutiden Politik Fremtiden Uddannelse Udvikling JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013 De tre faser i processen. Alle trinene er absolut nødvendige, men er de tilstrækkelige? JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013

Mange tak for jeres tålmodighed Kærar þakkir JTJ Fróðskaparsetur Föroya September 2013