Kinesisk satsning på infrastruktur - Kan vi lære noget? Nis Høyrup Christensen Kinarådgiver, DI Ph.d. fellow, CBS

Kina og infrastruktur Infrastruktur dominerer vores mentale billede af Kina Hvad betyder infrastruktur for kineserne ? 1990 - 2010

Nødvendighed 2010 til 2025 forventes det at 300 millioner flytter fra land til by i Kina! Det betyder at fra 2010 til 2025 vil Kina gå fra at have 90 byer med over en million indbyggere til at have 221!

Nationsbygning Kinesisk satsning på infrastruktur Jernbroen i Nanjing over Yangtze. Et eksempel fra 1960erne hvor infrastruktur og nationsbygning går hånd i hånd

Sammenhængskraft The Qingzang railway, Qinghai–Xizang railway, or Qinghai–Tibet railway (simplified Chinese: 青藏铁路; traditional Chinese: 青藏鐵路; pinyin: Qīngzàng Tiělù; Tibetan: mtsho bod lcags lam མཚོ་བོད་ལྕགས་ལམ།), is a high-altitude railway that connects Xining, Qinghai Province, to Lhasa, Tibet Autonomous Region, in People's Republic of China. The total length of Qingzang railway is 1956 km (1215 mi). Construction of the 815 km (506 mi) section between Xining and Golmud was completed by 1984. The 1142 km (709 mi) section between Golmud and Lhasa was inaugurated on 1 July 2006 by president Hu Jintao: the first two passenger trains were "Qing 1" (Q1) from Golmud to Lhasa, and "Zang 2" (J2) from Lhasa.[1] This railway is the first to connect the Tibet Autonomous Region to any other province, which, due to its altitude and terrain, is the last province-level entity in mainland China to have a conventional railway. Testing of the line and equipment started on 1 May 2006.[2] Passenger trains run from Beijing, Chengdu, Chongqing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Xining and Lanzhou.[3] The line includes the Tanggula Pass, which, at 5,072 m (16,640 feet) above sea level, is the world's highest rail track. The 1,338 m Fenghuoshan tunnel is the highest rail tunnel in the world at 4,905 m above sea level. The 4,010-m Guanjiao tunnel is the longest tunnel from Xining to Golmod and the 3,345-m Yangbajing tunnel is the longest tunnel from Golmod to Lhasa. More than 960 km, or over 80% of the Golmud-Lhasa section, is at an altitude of more than 4,000 m. There are 675 bridges, totalling 159.88 km, and about 550 km of the railway is laid on permafrost. Note: Trains runs through 4064 kilometers from Beijing to Lhasa and the journey takes around 48 hours.

”China speed” Wuhan – Guangzhou The Wuguang High-Speed Railway short for Beijing–Guangzhou High-Speed Railway, Wuhan–Guangzhou Section, is a 968-kilometre (601 mi) high-speed rail line, operated by China Railway High-speed (CRH), connecting Wuhan (Hubei) and Guangzhou (Guangdong), in the People's Republic of China. It is the world's fastest train service,[3] initially using coupled CRH2C and CRH3C trains which average 313 kilometres per hour (194 mph) in non-stop commercial service. The line is part of the future 2100-km long Beijing–Guangzhou High-Speed Railway, while the Beijing–Shijiazhuang and Shijiazhuang–Wuhan sections are still under construction and set to open by the end of 2011.

”China speed”

Markedsskabelse one of the 30 drivers in Shenzhen of the BYD e6, an all-electric crossover car made by Chinese automaker BYD Co Ltd. By the end of the year, Shenzhen's fleet of electric taxis will rise to 100 This is part of Shenzhen's plan to create a green city by introducing electric vehicles. According to the local government, the city will have 24,000 electric vehicles and 12,750 charging stations by 2012. The Shenzhen-based company, backed by US billionaire Warren Buffet, is the country's eighth-largest automaker. Its CEO Wang Chuanfu earlier said that, with its electric cars, he aimed to turn BYD into China's biggest auto producer by 2015. The electric taxis are more expensive than ordinary taxis that run on gasoline. A BYD e6 taxi is sold at 300,000 yuan ($43,942), three times the price of an ordinary one. The central government is subsidizing the purchase of each taxi to the tune of 60,000 yuan. The Shenzhen government is also drawing up subsidy plans for electric taxis to help develop the new industry. It costs less than 30 yuan for an e6 taxi to run 100 kilometers, while it costs about 60 yuan for an ordinary one to travel the same distance.

Højt til loftet

Infrastruktur og vækst er to sider af samme sag i Kina Kina i krisen Stimuli pakke på 600 milliarder $ Investeringer i infrastruktur, billige boliger, sundhedsvæsen og uddannelse Provins regeringer investerer også kraftigt En lang række politikker er gennemført for at lette investeringsmulighederne Massiv udvidelse af antallet af hospitaler og sundhedscentre i Kina: 2.000 nye hospitaler, 29.000 byhospitaler, 3.700 sundhedscentre , 11.000 sundhedsstationer, renovering af 5.000 klinikker Kina er ikke ramt af finanskrisen, men af den globale recession Fald i eksporten på over 20% (fra 2003 til 2008 var væksten i gennemsnit 27% om året) Kinas udgangspunkt 36% af BNP er baseret på eksport - stor afhængighed Kæmpe valutareserver på over 2.3 billioner $ Lav offentlig gæld Kina har stået stærkt rustet til at håndtere krisen Infrastruktur og vækst er to sider af samme sag i Kina

Stat Marked Marked og stat i Kina Det kinesiske paradoks: Massiv markedsekspansion - men samtidigt intervenerer staten konstant Markedet er et middel til et mål - ikke et mål i sig selv Markedet skal levere varen - ellers blander Kinas Kommunistiske Parti sig Kinas specielle historiske udvikling har efterladt den kinesiske stat med stor indflydelse på markedstransaktioner Det giver stor fleksibilitet i omstillingsperioder Det giver mindre berøringsangst over for at skabe markeder gennem statsstøtte Stat Marked

Konkurrence fra statsejede kinesiske virksomheder Chinese Overseas Engineering Group's bud lå hele 30% under det næstlaveste! Statsejet kinesiske business konglomerat: 37 underselskaber 280.000 ansatte Leverancer til det kinesiske marked: 5.000 broer og tunneller 50.000 km. jernbane 25.000 km. elektrisk jernbane 3.000 mega-projekter (havne) I September 2009 vandt Chinese Overseas Engineering Group (kaldet COVEC) en international licitation om et større anlægsprojekt i Polen. Buddet lå hele 30% under det næstlaveste! Hvordan når man sådan et bud, når EU regler ikke gør det muligt at importere kinesisk arbejdskraft i noget nævneværdigt omfang? EU kommissionen har godkendt forløbet, selvom det viser sig, at COVEC’s moderselskab stiller hele 100 mio. USD til rådighed for indkøb af materiel. Det er der altså ikke noget ulovligt i. Og prøv lige at se lidt på det her statsejede business konglomerat… En stor del af prisforskellen kan derfor føres tilbage til moderselskabets særstilling som statsejet virksomhed, der over årene har muliggjort en akkumulering af betydelige ressourcer. Det er f.eks. først de senere par år, at de kinesiske statsejede virksomheder har skulle betale dividende til staten. Det er disse ressourcer som CREC nu er villige til at bruge på at skaffe sig adgang til det europæiske marked.

Nis Høyrup Christensen Kinarådgiver, DI Ph.d. fellow, CBS Tak for i dag! Nis Høyrup Christensen Kinarådgiver, DI Ph.d. fellow, CBS