1 Peter Nedergaard: ØMU og eurozonekrisen 18. august 2014 Dagsorden: 1) Hvad er eurozonekrisen? 2) Udslagene 3) Løsningsinitiativerne 4) Forklaringerne.

Præsentationer af emnet: "1 Peter Nedergaard: ØMU og eurozonekrisen 18. august 2014 Dagsorden: 1) Hvad er eurozonekrisen? 2) Udslagene 3) Løsningsinitiativerne 4) Forklaringerne."— Præsentationens transcript:

1 1 Peter Nedergaard: ØMU og eurozonekrisen 18. august 2014 Dagsorden: 1) Hvad er eurozonekrisen? 2) Udslagene 3) Løsningsinitiativerne 4) Forklaringerne 4) Fremtidsperspektiverne

2 Eurozonekrisen 2 En gælds- og underskudskrise i eurozonen -Udløst af subprimekrisen/ Lehman Brothers krak -Men det var kun den udløsende faktor -Krisen var kommer senere alligevel Market failures eller government failures?

3 Indholdet af eurozonekrisen 3 -Store underskud i visse lande pga. offentligt overforbrug eller manglende skatteopkrævning Tegn: -Boligboble -Forbrugsfest Konsekvenser: -Massearbejdsløshed -Lav økonomisk vækst

4 Demonstrationer 4

5 I begyndelsen stor forvirring 5

6 Finanspagten 6 1.Intergovernmental aftale – med institutionel EU-back up 2.Skærpelse af Vækst- og stabilitetspagten (QMV for sanktioner) 3.Finanspagten: QMV for at hindre sanktioner 4.Max. 3 pct. konjunkturbetinget underskud 5.Max. 0,5 pct. strukturelt underskud (ordoliberalismen) 6.Nationale budgetlove

7 The EU Replies to the Euro Crisis 7 Time at agreement of the initiative at the EU level InitiativePurpose Fora of decision- making Form of initiativeObstacles 2010 European Financial Standing Facility (EFSF) Loan to member states European CouncilTemporary facility No bail-out clause in TFEU (Article 123) 2011Euro Plus Pact Increase competitiveness European Council Intergovernmental agreement The UK, the Czech Republic, Sweden and Hungary abstained 2011European Semester Monitor national budgets European Commission Supranational EU law 2011Six PackCorrection of macro-economic imbalances and sanctions European Commission Supranational EU law

8 The EU Replies to the Euro Crisis 8 2011Buy government bonds Lower interest rates in euro crisis countries ECBMarket intervention German Constitutional Court might declare plans illegal (cf. Article 123 in TFEU) 2012 European Stability Mechanism (ESM) Loan to member states European Council Intergovernmental institution The UK, the Czech Republic, Sweden and Hungary abstained 2012Fiscal CompactFiscal disciplineEuropean Council Intergovernmental treaty The UK and the Czech Republic abstained 2013Two Pack Surveillance mechanisms European Commission Supranational EU law 2013Banking UnionBanking supervisory authority European Commission ECB supervisory body Some non-euro countries will abstain (e.g. the UK and Sweden)

9 Teoretiske forklaringer på eurozonekrisen 9 Euro crisis Theory Cause of the political initiatives for the solution to the euro crisis Solution to the euro crisis Neo-functionalism The proposals for closer economic integration and coordination did not come until some time into the crisis in 2011, when there was an urgent need to ease the pressure on the interest rates in crisis countries. The Fiscal Compact and further tightening of EMU thereby complete the spill-over process and eliminate the initial design flaw. Intergovernmentalism As the leader of the EU Germany accepted the establishment of EMU to ensure a stable EU, which is a German interest. It has been an active leader from 2011 and onwards, when the euro crisis began to affect important German economic and political interests. Euro crisis gives Germany an incentive to assume the role of hegemon, but a solution requires other EU member states to agree to Germany playing this role. Ordo-liberalismGermany assesses the 2011 situation and concludes that the EMU needs a dose of ordo-liberalism in the form of monetary stability, zero-tolerance towards public deficits and effective sanctions embedded in a form of economic constitution. The decision-makers of the euro countries adjust institutions as well as their way of thinking in accordance with the German model. Ordo-liberalism assumes complete ideological hegemony and is internalised at the decision-making level in the euro area.

10 Prognoser angående en permanent løsning på eurozonekrisen 10 Prognoses Theory Prognosis regarding the solution to the euro crisis: positive or negative? Neo-functionalism Positive: Once the EU has corrected the design flaws of the EMU through tightened rules, the euro crisis will be solved. Intergovernmentalis m Positive/ negative: The other euro countries have to accept the hegemon role of Germany and the German population has to accept the costs of playing the role of the leader. Ordo-liberalismNegative: Ideology and institutions are not easily changed into an ordo- liberal model.

11 Faldende tilslutning til det europæiske projekt 11

12 Mistillid til nationale politske ledere (undtagen Merkel) 12

13 Mistillid til hinanden? 13

14 Opsamling 14 EU har betalt en høj pris for ikke at centralisere den økonomisk-politiske beslutningstagen 1.I første omgang så der ikke ud til at være nogen pris at betale 2.Kommissionen var samtidig tøvende med at tilslutte sig den funktionalistiske argumentation 3.Kommissionen fra 2010: Gennemgang af finanslove om foråret, før de vedtages om efteråret + europagten i 2011: Offentlige lønninger, pensioner, produktivitet, konkurrenceevne. 4.Kommissionen styrer de factor finanspolitikken i Grækenland 5.Finanspagten