SUSTAINABILITY AT NO COST Jørgen Stig Nørgård Department of Civil Engineering Technical University of Denmark DK 2800 Lyngby, Denmark BALATON.

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1 SUSTAINABILITY AT NO COST Jørgen Stig Nørgård Department of Civil Engineering Technical University of Denmark DK 2800 Lyngby, Denmark jsn@byg.dtu.dk BALATON GROUP MEETING 11. September 2009 Balatonszemes, Hungary SPECIAL OFFER !!

2 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 2 ISSUES OF TALK ON ECONOMIC GROWTH AND LIMITS ON DECOUPLING MYTH ON REBOUND EFFECT ON WORK AND CONSUMPTION ON POPULATION ON EQUITY

3 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 3 BASIC OPTIMIZATION Bentham’s moral doctrine in 1789: GREATEST AMOUNT OF HAPPINESS FOR THE GREATEST NUMBER OF PEOPLE This, however, involves a double optimization !!!

4 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 4 PROFESSIONAL ECONOMY GDP HAPPINESS (ultimate benefits) NATURE EXPLOIT. (ultimate cost) AMATEUR ECONOMY “GRATIS” WHOLE ECONOMY (UTILITARIAN ECONOMY, WELFARE ECONOMY, OR ?

5 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 5 PHYSICAL LIMITS: FACTOR 10 REDUCTION in OECD 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 Year 2060 INDEX (year 2000 ~ 1.0) GDP-growth 3.5 % / year GDP-saturation TMI, Total Material-Input Reduction to one Tenth of Present TMI

6 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 6 PROFESSIONAL ECONOMY GDP HAPPINESS (ultimate benefits) NATURE EXPLOIT. (ultimate cost) AMATEUR ECONOMY “GRATIS” MONEY ECONOMY TAKES OVER MORE AND MORE, …for good and for bad. e,g. cooking, childcare, old people care, health care, family parties, gardening, entertainment etc…..

7 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 7 PROFESSIONAL ECONOMY GDP HAPPINESS (ultimate benefits) NATURE EXPLOIT. (ultimate cost) AMATEUR ECONOMY “GRATIS” REVERSE MONEY ECONOMY ? TAKE BACK YOUR TIME REGAIN CONTROL MORE SECURITY MORE SATISFACTION etc…..

8 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 8 LIMITS TO GROWTH PHYSICAL LIMITS TO GDP GROWTH, including goods and services, the latter being quite material and energy intensive PSYCHOLOGICAL LIMITS TO GDP GROWTH through professionalizing or monetizing previously amateur activities

9 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 9 THE MYTH OF GDP DE-COUPLING FROM ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT

10 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 10 Source: Updated from Hansen(2002) (http://dspace.ruc.dk/handle/1800/ 1124/) with new data from Danmarks Statistik, Statistikbankenhttp://dspace.ruc.dk/handle/1800/ 1124/ DE-COUPLING ? Since 1970 Denmark’s total energy consumption has remained almost constant (solid line), ------------ While real GDP has almost doubled (dotted line) ---------- De-Coupling ? ?

11 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 11 The last 30 year’s improvement in Denmark’s energy efficiency points towards a 25% lowering of consumption → red line. - Why is it not ? - Because of coupling to GDP! Jørgen Nørgård NO DE-COUPLING

12 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 12 ENERGY - ECONOMY COUPLINGS ENERGY CONSUMPTION GDP ENERGY- EFFICIENCY + - + GDP-GROWTH PUSHES ENERGY CONSUMPTION UPWARDS. TEMPORARLY IT CAN BE KEPT IN CHECK BY EFFICIENCY ECONOMIC GROWTH POLICY ´+´+ ENERGY SAVING POLICY +

13 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 13 ENERGY - ECONOMY COUPLINGS ENERGY CONSUMPTION GDP ENERGY- EFFICIENCY + - + GDP-GROWTH PUSHES ENERGY CONSUMPTION UPWARDS. MEASURES WHICH REDUCE GDP ARE VERY COST EFFECTIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH POLICY - ´+´+ ENERGY SAVING POLICY + THE “FORBIDDEN” PATH

14 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 14 BASIC IMPACT FACTORS I = P A T = Population Affluence Techno- intensity

15 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 15 TECHNOLOGICAL OPTIONS ARE THEY COSTLY ?? MANY ARE NOT, BUT THERE ARE VESTED INTERESTS IN CHOOSING EXPENSIVE SOLUTIONS. (more jobs, more prestige, more GDP, etc.) Some simple solutions even have a double benefit ►

16 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 16 Clothes Drying Equipment Run by Solar and Wind Energy, ….. ….and a Healthy Exercise ! ….and a Healthy Exercise ! Copyright: Claus Deleuran TECHNOLOGICAL OPTIONS

17 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 17 CASULTIES IN TRAFFIC More are killed by too little exercise than by accidents Fra: Nørgård og Christensen: ”Energihusholdning..” FDB, Tåstrup, 1982 Copyright: Claus Deleuran

18 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 18 BASIC IMPACT FACTORS I = P A T = Population Affluence Techno- intensity

19 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 19 POPULATIONS NEF, 2009: The (Un)happy Planet Index 2.0. www.happyplanetindex.orgwww.happy

20 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 20 Make room please ! Steve Bloom

21 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 21 BIODIVERSITY LIVING PLANET INDEX Wild Vertebrate Species Population WWF: Living Planet Report 2006. http://www.footprintnetwork.org/newsletters/gfn_blast_0610.html

22 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 22 Human Population Index Wild Vertebrate Species Population BIODIVERSITY LIVING PLANET INDEX

23 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 23 POPULATION DEVELOPMENT In Europe (on the right track, but ….) In China (avoided 400-800 million people) In India … ALL AT LOW, NO, OR NEGATIVE COST

24 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 24 BASIC IMPACT FACTORS I = P A T = Population Affluence Techno- intensity

25 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 25 SIGNS OF DE-COUPLING GDP FROM HAPPINESS ?

26 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 26 ACCIDENTS INCREASES GDP ! © Claus Deleuran, 1982

27 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 27 GENUINE PROGRESS INDICATOR, GPI USA $ (2000) per Capita

28 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 28 INCOME AND HAPPINESS (USA)

29 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 29 HAPPINESS VS GDP/CAP, COUNTRIES NEF, 2009: The (Un)happy Planet Index 2.0. www.happyplanetindex.orgwww.happy

30 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 30 HAPPY LIFE YEARS vs ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT NEF, 2009: The (Un)happy Planet Index 2.0. www.happyplanetindex.orgwww.happy

31 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 31 HAPPY PLANET INDEX, HPI Life Satisfaction x Life Expectancy HPI = --------------------------------------------------- Ecological Footprint NEF, 2009: The (Un)happy Planet Index 2.0. www.happyplanetindex.orgwww.happy

32 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 32 HAPPY PLANET INDEX, HPI Life Satisfaction x Life Expectancy HPI = --------------------------------------------------- Ecological Footprint = 76.1 for Costa Rica# 1 in the world = 65.7 for Cuba# 7 = 58.5 for Bhutan # 17 = 57.1 for China # 20 = 37.1 for Ghana# 100 = 35.5 for Denmark # 105 = 34.5 for Russia # 108 = 30.7 for USA # 114 = 16.6 for Zimbabwe # 143 NEF, 2009: The (Un)happy Planet Index 2.0. www.happyplanetindex.orgwww.happy

33 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 33 WORK ADDICTION

34 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 34 HARD WORK IS A PROTESTANT VIRTUE © Claus Deleuran, 1982

35 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 35 HARD WORK IS A PROTESTANT VIRTUE © Claus Deleuran, 1982 IMPLEMENTED TO SAVE THE ENVIRONMENT NOW POSING A THREAT TO THE ENVIRONMENT

36 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 36 LESS WORK OR MORE INCOME 1

37 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 37 LESS WORK OR MORE INCOME 2

38 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 38 LABOUR INPUT FACTORS Population, POP Labor Force Fraction, LFF Working Time, WT Employment Rate, ER Labor Productivity, PROD Labor Input to Production, LIP, is then: LIP = POP ● LFF ● WT ● ER ● PROD

39 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 39 RE-DISTRIBUTION

40 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 40 MORE GLOBAL EQUITY - - - - - - could be of benefit to the SOUTH - - - - - Photo. Kevin Carter

41 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 41 MORE GLOBAL EQUITY - - - - - - could be of benefit to the SOUTH - - - - - - - - - - as well as to the NORTH! Photo. Kevin Carter

42 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 42 4 REASONS TO PROMOTE MORE EQUITY 1)MORAL REASON: In a limited world ethics call for more sharing. 2)POLITICAL REASON: Reducing social unrest and international conflicts. 3)ECONOMIC REASON: More equal distribution of wealth increase total satisfaction. 4)ENVIRONMENTAL REASON: Equality tends to promote saturation.

43 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 43 4 REASONS TO PROMOTE MORE EQUITY 1)MORAL REASON: In a limited world ethics call for more sharing. 2)POLITICAL REASON: Reducing social unrest and international conflicts. 3)ECONOMIC REASON: More equal distribution of wealth increase total satisfaction. 4)ENVIRONMENTAL REASON: Equality tends to promote saturation. I found no reasons for inequity !

44 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 44 POLITICAL ACTIONS ? ↑ ↑ I = P A T 

45 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 45 FREE FROM THE YOKE OF GROWTH OBVIOUSLY, A TRANSITION FROM AN UN-ECONOMIC GROWTH TO A STEADY STATE ECONOMY NEED NOT BE A PAINFUL PROCESS - EXCEPT FOR SOME CONVENTIONAL ECONOMISTS. (and it is probably cheaper to provide emergency help to few depressed economists than to a whole depressed economy !)

46 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 46 A. EINSTEIN: “Not everything that can be counted counts, and, not everything that counts can be counted”

47 11. September 2009 Balaton Meeting, Hungary Jørgen S. Nørgård, Techn. Univ. of Denmark DK2800 Lyngby, Denmark. jsn@byg.dtu.dk 47 TECHNIQUE, PROFIT, ETHIC A Limerick Sigh In the affluent OECDe’den, Life could be like in Garden of Eden. But with ‘Apple’s of Eve, we in numbers believe, so the joy and the ethics is eaten. Jorgen S. Norgard, 2008