CEESA Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis Senior Research Specialist Poul Erik Morthorst Risø National Laboratory The Technical University.

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1 CEESA Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis Senior Research Specialist Poul Erik Morthorst Risø National Laboratory The Technical University of Denmark

2 Organisation I Funded by the Strategic Research Council as a 4 year project Partners:

3 Development of Long Term Sustainable Energy System Scenarios

4 Organisation II Subdivided into 5 Work Packages WP 1: Long term sustainable energy system scenarios – Definition and Development WP2 : Renewable Energy in Transportation, especially biomass WP3: The Future Electric Power System – Centralized and/or Decentralized Solutions WP4: Market Development and Public Regulation – instruments to implement the sustainable scenarios WP5: Environmental Assessment of Energy Scenarios - LCA

5 WP-interactions Development of Preliminary Scenarios Preliminary LCA-screening

6 WP-interactions Final Scenarios including LCA-analyses

7 100% Renewable Scenarios

8 Three scenarios Mostly Wind Mostly Biomass High Demand

9 Scenarios developed for the Danish association of Engineers

10

11 Highlights I Store besparelser Rumvarme – 50% (2030) + -20% (2050) Industri – 40% - 20% Elforbrug – 50% (private) – 30%(industri) – 10%(2050) Mere industriel kraftvarme + fjernvarme Lavere vækst I transporten Stabiliseret fra 2030 20% af vejtransport på skib og bane – 50% I 2050 20% på biofuels og 20% på el i2030 100% på biofuels, el og brint I 2050

12 Highlights II Fuel cells ind I energiforsyningen micro FC CHP 10% af individuelle opvarmning I 2030 FC kraftværker efter 2015 35-40% I 2030 2050: al el baseret på FC eller biogas/gasifikation af biomasse Mere VE Vindkraft 6000 MW I 2030 – endnu mere I 2050? Bedre udnyttelse af biomasspotentailet 180PJ ift 90 PJ I dag. Solvarme, PV og bølgekraft I moderat omfang Varmepumper I stort omfang

13 Centrale spørgsmål Hvordan opnår vi så store besparelser? Kvoter, hvide certifikater, standarder…. det alt sammen? Vi skal have mere fjernvarme – er der en konflikt til store besparelser I rumvarme?? Hvilken tariffering skal evt. anvendes?? Transporten skal kraftigt omlægges biofuels, el og brint…… VE investering I og regulering af vindkraften… hvilke systemer anvender vi? Flere inmcentimenter til biomasse-produktion Hvordan indpasses varmepumper I det samlede system, hvilke instrumenter bruger vi?

14 Wind power in Western Denmark

15 Wind Power covered approx. 44% of Power consumption in January in Western Denmark

16 Wind power in Western Denmark Wind Power covered approx. 44% of Power consumption in January in Western Denmark … and 36% on average in Denmark

17 Impact on Spot Price

18 Det fremtidige energiforbrug Growing energy consumption in the future – 80% from fossil fuel Source: IEA

19 IEA Emissions Reduktionsscenarie til 2050

20 IEA Emissions reduktionsomkostninger