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Den syriske opstand - to år senere Jakob Skovgaard-Petersen.

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Præsentationer af emnet: "Den syriske opstand - to år senere Jakob Skovgaard-Petersen."— Præsentationens transcript:

1 Den syriske opstand - to år senere Jakob Skovgaard-Petersen

2 A mosaic? A pattern of distinct entities static in harmony

3 Or a kaleidoscope? Sects are managed, to the point of changing much of their content People are moving around physically. Intermarriage Other identities Or mixed ones?

4 Syncretism

5 Common culture, national identity

6 Map of Syria’s religions Sect vs religious minority

7 Other languages and ethnicities

8 From milla to taifa

9 The birth of anti-Sectarianism Saleh al-AliSultan Pasha al-Atrash

10 The Baath Party: An anti-Sectarian vehicle for Sectarian policies.

11 The Asads. From Security State to state plunder

12 Opstanden 2011-

13 Tidslinje 2011 Marts: 6 De 15 drenge i Deraa 15. ”Vredens dag” demonstrationer 30Asads tale. Dagen efter reformer. April 8.”Jumaat al-Sumud.” kurderne med. Juni: 2-3 Antalya mødet 10-13 Massakre i Jisr Shughur. Den arabiske Liga fordømmer. Juli 22”Jumaat Khaled ibn al- Walid. 650.000 i Hama.

14 Tidslinje August Ramadan offensiv Hama, latakia Golfen agerer Vesten: Asad illegitim 12”Vi bøjer os kun for Gud” 23SNC dannes September 9”International beskyttelse” 10FNs sikkerhedsråd, veto 21Tyrkiet bryder forbindelsen Oktober 2SNC organiserer sig 4Ruslands andet veto 7Fredag for SNC, FSA November Arabiske Liga involveres

15 Tidslinie 2012 Januar Arabiske Ligas mission forgæves Februar 3 veto i FNs sikkerhedsråd Belejringen af Homs ”Friends of Syria”: Annan mission med Rusland om bord 26 Forfatningsafstemning April Annans fredsplan med seks punkter Maj Massakre i Houla Juli PM afhopper Attentat mod hovedkvarteret November Damaskus lufthavn ved at falde Kurdernes militser tager over

16 SNC: et alternativ?

17 Alternativer til alternativet ?

18 Doha, november 2012

19 2013: The three Syrias


21 Fra SNC til Koalitionen til regering selim Idriss, Ahmad Jarba, Ahmad Saleh Toma Splittelser: MB Interim regering? Qatar og Saudi, US Udspillet

22 Amerikansk intervention - eller Rusland i førersædet

23 Militær Status oktober 2013

24 2013 Sept 24: Bayan no 1

25 A new millet system? Then what about the rafidun and ghulat?

26 De-centralization A good idea, but to which degree? Sensible local arrangements But addressing sects, not minorities Cannot follow sectarian faultlines Minorities can oppress minorities. A Pandora’s box, but it has been opened?

27 An upper chamber in Parliament? Representatives from all sects, ethnicities. Accepting or rejecting the budget, other major decisions, but perhaps with a majority of 2/3 Point: all groups will be represented, counter- acting majority rule in Parliament Risk: dead-lock.

28 Conclusion Although a certain cosmopolitan anti-Sectarianism has thrived under Baath and the Asads, the regime has exploited it rather than supported it Anti-sectarism is grounded to Syrian history and society. In the later phase of the uprising, Sectarianism has grown to become a major challenge in the future. Syria should find a way of making light institutional concessions to a sectarian reality whilst building on its proud tradition of anti- Sectarianism to overcome it.

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