DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Mulige strategier for en bæredygtig trafikudvikling Linda Christensen Seniorforsker.

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1 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Mulige strategier for en bæredygtig trafikudvikling Linda Christensen Seniorforsker

2 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Trafikkens sammensætning og trafikudvikling

3 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Fordeling på transportmidler

4 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Bilejerskab og brug af kollektiv trafik

5 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Udviklingen i transportarbejdet

6 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Prisudviklingen på kollektiv trafik og anden transport

7 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Den kollektive trafiks tilstand i 1990’erne

8 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Er kollektiv rejse mulig?

9 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Rejsetid med kollektiv trafik og i bil

10 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Rejsetid med kollektiv trafik og i bil

11 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Betydningen af rejsetiden for valg af transportmiddel

12 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Kollektiv trafik og klimaeffekt

13 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Forhold mellem CO 2 udslip fra bil og kollektiv trafik •Alm. 12 meter bus 5-6 gange •8 tons servicebus3,5-4,2 gange •3 tons midibus1,4-17 gange •Minibusser1-1,2 gange •med 1,5 – 1,7 passager i personbil skal der sidde 9 mennesker i en 12 m bus for at den er CO 2 neutral •Midibusser fra Mercedes eller Neoplan er særlig interessante selv om de ikke er udbredte i DK. •Har plads til 10-20 siddende og 10-15 stående passagerer

14 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Effekt af virkemidler på kollektiv trafik

15 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Effekt af halvering af takster Bil- 2 % Kollektiv trafik35% Cykel og gang- 5% I alt 5%

16 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Ændring i passagertal ved forbedringer Dobbelt frekvens 25% kortere køretid Dobbelt frekvens + 10% kortere tid Centralkommuner44%43%69% Forst æ der 106%55%141% By 10-65.000 indb.148%82%188% Land, sm å byer 114%91%160% Dobbelt frekvens 25% kortere køretid Dobbelt frekvens + 10% kortere tid Centralkommuner- 6%- 7%- 11% Forst æ der -5% - 8% By 10-65.000 indb.- 2%-4 %- 3% Land, sm å byer 1%- 1%- 0,1% Ændring i biltrafik ved forbedringer

17 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Hvor er kollektive forbedringer en god ide, økonomisk og miljømæssigt? •Høj hastighed –egentlig højklasset trafik, letbaner, metro, S-tog, IC tog. Men bemærk anlægsudgifterne –Større fremkommelighed, busbaner, signalstyring, S- busser. Sparer også driftudgifter •Bedre koordinering –Ventetid ved skift er det mest belastende

18 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Cykler som bæredygtig strategi?

19 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Distribution of travels (round tours) on modes depending on travel length for people aged 18-84. •60 % of short travels is made by car •22 % of short travels is made by foot or bycicle •In Central Copen- hagen it is 43 % •4 % of the over all kilometres are short travels 16. 12. 2009IATBR19

20 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark •Hilliness •In the flattest part of Denmark 21 % on bike66 % by car •In the most hilly town, Vejle 10 % on bike 74 % by car •Temperature •At 20 ºC the cycling share is 21 % •At 0 ºC the cycling share is14 % •Car kilometre are 4 % lower in summer than in winter. •Daylight is important for women •Daylight 5,9 % walking km18,6 % on bike •Dark4,4 % walking km 15,7 % on bike •Women are walking and cycling a bit more km in daylight than men. •Wind and rain •Wind is barely significant and the difference between no wind and mean wind is 1 %. •Rain also is of little importance. Impact – measured in km - of where and under which circumstances the travel is taking place 16. 12. 200920IATBR

21 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Effekt af virkemidler til forbedring af cykling

22 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Impact of policy measures Typical policies could be •Longer driving times by car, either as a result of regulation or of congestion •Prioritising cycle traffic in urban areas to increase the speed •Parking fees and restrictions •Cycle paths which reduces distances compared to cars •More security for cyclist, i.e. as a result of cycle lanes •”Cycle cities”, with a combination of many different improvements to increase the passability for cycles •Bike parking facilities •Campaigns to increase cycling and walking, i.e. information or competition oriented •Arrangements in companies to promote cycling by employees •Economic incentives, i.e. tax reduction 16. 12. 200922IATBR

23 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark 3 separate models is developed to analyse the impact of policy measures on commuting, leisure and shopping travels. Kilometer Car driverPassengerCyclingWalkingIn all Commuting, base64 %7 %28 %1,5 %100 % Commuting, with ’grand total’39 %3,%57 %1 %100 % Impact of ’grand total’-39 %-51 %103 %-37 %0 % Leisure, base60 %14 %15 %12 %100 % Leisure, with ’grand total’56 %13 %18 %13 %100 % Impact of ’grand total’ -6,50 %-5,6 %21 %13 %0 % Shopping, base76 %9 %11 %5 %100 % Shopping, with ’grand total’66 %8 %20 %5 %100 % Impact of ’grand total’-13 %-6 %92 %11 %0 % 16. 12. 200923IATBR

24 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark16. 12. 2009IATBR24 Conclusions •The effect of the ’grand total’ scenario is relatively small: –Maximum possible shift is 16 % of car kilometres on short travels –Shift of about 2½ % of the over all car kilometres –An improvement of the health situation measured in fatality. •90 % of the increase in walking and cycling will be on cycling. •The potential for shifting to walking is very small. •So if you want to make a policy for reducing car traffic concentrate on a cycling policy •First of all it is the commuting trips which can be shifted, with up to 1/3 •Also at shopping car kilometres can be reduced, but to a lesser degree •A cycling policy will never be the only policy to make traffic sustainable. It will only be one of many policies

25 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Betydningen af bystruktur

26 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Conclusions –Strong correlation between distances travelled and urban structure. Not due to socio-economic differences –Residences ought to be concentrated •Best around the city centre of the central city. •Else in the bigger towns around the the city •Sprawl to villages and rural areas maximises the distances travelled –Workplaces/offices ought to be concentrated closely around rail stations - eventually in high rise. Residences should be placed next to them –Detailed planning of road network and residential areas is essential to avoid local impacts from traffic

27 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Conclusions Car kilometres - Residences

28 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Klimakommissionen

29 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Syv forhold, der skal tages udgangspunkt i: 1.reduktion i udledningen af drivhusgasser 2.øget energieffektivitet 3.fortsat høj forsyningssikkerhed 4.samfundsøkonomisk omkostningseffektivitet gennem anvendelse af markeds-baserede løsninger 5.fortsat høj økonomisk vækst 6.gunstig erhvervsudvikling og fremme af erhvervslivets internationale konkurrenceevne 7.miljømæssig bæredygtig udvikling Kommissorium ”Klimakommissionen skal belyse, hvorledes Danmark på lang sigt kan frigøre sig fra afhængigheden af fossile brændstoffer. Kommissionen skal ved belysningen beskrive virkeliggørelsen af den langsigtede vision.”

30 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Styrende principper

31 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark To hovedspor for omstilling af transporten El-drift  Udnytte vindbaseret el-produktion,  Energi lagring enten i batterier eller kemisk (H 2 + brændselscelle)  Plug-in hybrid biler vil have et potentiale i overgangsperiode El-drift  Udnytte vindbaseret el-produktion,  Energi lagring enten i batterier eller kemisk (H 2 + brændselscelle)  Plug-in hybrid biler vil have et potentiale i overgangsperiode Biobrændstoffer  Substitution i benzin- og diesel-biler er uproblematisk  Biomasse vil blive en knap ressource  På lang sigt primært til luftfart, søfart og til dels vejgods Biobrændstoffer  Substitution i benzin- og diesel-biler er uproblematisk  Biomasse vil blive en knap ressource  På lang sigt primært til luftfart, søfart og til dels vejgods

32 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Vejen til 2050? PersonbilerPersonbiler VarebilerVarebiler LastbilerLastbiler BusserBusser TogTog Fly, inkl. udenrigs Skibe, inkl. færger CyklerCykler 20102020203020402050

33 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Elbiler som løsning

34 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark How large will the EV market be if we do not do anything? •Basisudvikling i –Teknologi batterier –Teknologi for udvikling af bilers rækkevidde –Udbuddet af biler •Ingen udvikling i –Bilernes priser (konventionelle og el-biler) –Begrænset opstilling af eksterne lademuligheder –Konventionelle biler

35 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark How many EVs with full accessibility in 2020

36 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark And if the purchage charge tax excemption is prolonged to 2020…

37 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Elbilers krav til infrastruktur

38 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Need for charging away from home 0, 1, 2 etc. days during a period of 13 days. Represents a family in Greater Copenhagen. Source: Akta data 10.01.2008Præsentation38

39 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Share of cars that need to fast charge during the day in 1, 2 etc number of days over a month.

40 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Distribution on average daily kilometres for vans and lorries operating 225 days a year. Whole Denmark. Source: MDCars 10.01.2008Præsentation40

41 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Need to charge at home or elsewhere 10.01.2008Præsentation41

42 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Share of trips for trips with need for charging compared to all trips 10.01.2008Præsentation42

43 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Optimal location of 5 fast charging stations

44 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Optimal location of 20 fast charging stations 10.01.2008Præsentation44

45 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Tours with need for fast charging Successfull tours / overall detours 1448 Extended trips With all 1288 open stations – succesfull tours = 1441 bad matchings = 7 detours = 6,322 km = 4.4 km / tour

46 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Conclusion •Only few electric vehicle drivers will need to charge outside home •But seen over a period most EV drivers will need to charge elseware •Fast charging is needed sometimes for a high share of EV drivers. This will need a great number of fastcharging stations 10.01.2008Præsentation46

47 DTU Transport, Technical University of Denmark Min konklusion •Biltrafikken skal begrænses, vejafgifter er reelt eneste løsning •Kollektiv trafik skal forbedres som reelt alternativ til bil –Især i samspil med cykler og dele(el)biler •Cykeltrafik skal forbedres i byerne, se til Odense og København, men det breder sig – også i udlandet •Alle virkemidler er nødvendige •Men teknologiudvikling er det der virkelig batter